Political Odds for the 2012 Election

As I’ve written in this space many times I’m a big fan of online gambling. Sports gambling mainly, however, over the last few years more and more sites are adding political prop bets to the list of things you can wager on. With the primaries in full swing and a tight race between Santorum and Romney shaping up here is where Vegas has each candidate going into the Michigan Primary, which takes place on February 28th:

Odds to win the Michigan Primary

Mitt Romney -130
Rick Santorum - EVEN
Newt Gingrich +5500
Ron Paul +5500

Romney is only a slight favorite in what most people considered a home state for him. Also, If you think Ron Paul or Gingrich could pull off a stunner there is a lot of money to be made. Here is a look at a more national odds:

2012 US Presidential Election – Odds to be Next President

Barack Obama 5/11
Mitt Romney 11/4
Rick Santorum 9/1
Newt Gingrich 40/1
Ron Paul 50/1
Hillary Clinton 100/1

As a sitting president, President Obama is the clear cut favorite to win in 2012. However Romney has made progress in the last few months, at least in the eyes of Las Vegas handicappers. Finally will finish up taking a look at the odds for the Arizona Primary which takes place the same day as Michigan:

Odds to win the Arizona Primary

Mitt Romney -400
Rick Santorum +275
Newt Gingrich +4000
Ron Paul +5000

Romney is a heavy favorite in Arizona, but if polling in Michigan continues to move towards Santorum who knows where Romney might end up.

What we can glean from this is that Romney is still the Republican favorite Santorum is making a strong push – and oddsmakers are noticing. Sports books rarely lose money – and for that reason alone is why I trust them as good indicators of how the race is going.

 

 

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Related posts:

  1. Las Vegas Weighs In On 2012
  2. Political Odds Update!
  3. The Odds on Gaddafi
  4. Handicapping 2012: Romney Gets Vegas Oddsmakers Nod for GOP Nominee
  5. Update to the Update on the Presidential odds.


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02 2012

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